Five reasons US must avoid war with Iran

Do the drumbeaters calling for ?war with Iran? never learn from history? It is tempting to dismiss their hot air as an attempt to score political points, but its sheer volume is worrying. Two former US hostages in Iran say Obama must ignore the war talk, and keep in mind these five key points.

The Iranians are claiming they recently disabled an American drone aircraft. If they did so, Americans should find out how, and apply their techniques to deal with those closer to home who drone on about the ?Iranian threat,? beat the war drums by suggesting military strikes and regime change, and risk dragging this country into a new military calamity in the Middle East.

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Do these droners and drumbeaters never learn from history? Would they have the United States enter a new catastrophe just as we are extricating ourselves ? with great difficulty ? from two bloody, costly, and unproductive misadventures in Iran?s neighborhood?

To all appearances American drumbeaters are no smarter than Iraq?s Saddam Hussein, who, in 1980, thought that a weakened and divided Iran would fall easily to his better-armed and better-organized forces. Instead his attack united Iranians ? even those who detested the prevailing holy fascism ? behind defending the homeland. In that sense, Hussein also helped the authorities in Tehran to suppress all domestic dissent and consolidate power under the most authoritarian and intolerant of ideologies.

Just because a war with Iran is foolish, however, does not mean it will not happen. Several discredited former American officials?such as?former ambassador to the UN John Bolton and former?House Speaker Newt Gingrich are essentially calling for one.?While it is tempting to dismiss the current rhetoric as hot air intended to score political points, its sheer volume and frequency is worrying. Nine years ago, in the case of Iraq, a similar flood of rhetoric, fear mongering, and distortion overwhelmed good judgment, and led America on a course that defied common sense. It could happen again, this time in a way that could make Iraq look easy.

US officials ? particularly the president ? who have the difficult task of dealing with Iran should ignore the recent cacophony of war talk, and keep in mind the following:

? Iran is chiefly a threat to itself. Its diplomacy has been inept, featuring charm offensives alternating with making gratuitous enemies. It has few friends in its region, beyond tiny, Christian Armenia. Unlike most of its neighbors, it is not Arab, Turkish, or Sunni Muslim, and thus lacks a ready entree into regional affairs. Its support of President Bashir al-Assad?s regime in Syria, while under?standable from a strategic point of view, has won it few friends in the region.

? The priority of those in power in Tehran is their own political survival. When that is at stake, they can become remarkably flexible (or brutal). As a former Iranian official once put it, regarding the Iran-Iraq war: They don?t care how many young people die in the Iraqi swamps. But they are not going to commit political suicide.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/wctZ6Bx0z4Q/Five-reasons-US-must-avoid-war-with-Iran

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